Commish Notes Week 12 – Running Toward the Playoffs

Twelve weeks down and just one to go until the MLOM 2010 Regular Season goes officially into the books.  There’s plenty of drama left for all involved.  Most of these notes will focus on the somewhat cloudy playoff picture, and we’ll get to that shortly.  The week twelve game results all seemed to gravitate toward the idea of keeping it close down the home stretch and frankly, here in MLOM, most of us wouldn’t have it any other way.

Inter-Division War

 

Before we dive into the playoffs, let’s take a quick look at the inter-division war.  The Predators have clinched the battle and currently lead the Aliens by count of 16 to 12.  There is only one game remaining, and it’s a doozy, between LT’s Crackheeds and the Brown Trout here in week 13.  As far as inter-division wars go, this won’t be the most extreme (as when the Ninjas lit up the Samurais 19-11 back in 2005) nor will it be the closest (as when Cobra defeated GI Joe by a 15-14 margin in 2008), but nevertheless, it will be a part of MLOM history.

 

Ok, on to the topic at hand.

 

 

Playoff Picture

We’re just one game away from completing the 2010 regular season.  What makes it so exciting is that the playoff picture is still  a mess and can go a lot of different directions.  The Predators Division is still up for grabs, while the (much weaker) Aliens division belongs solely to Los Pescaderos.  We currently have four teams clinched for the playoffs, and just two spots remain.  Those two spots will be fought over by four teams this week.   Two teams are entirely out of the hunt, but still figure prominently in shaping the playoff picture with their performances this week.

Given all the combinations/permutations, I decided to try and approach this from two angles in order to (hopefully) simplify and clarify the playoff picture.  The first approach is to look at each week 13 game and state what’s on the line.  The second is a team by team look which looks at every team in the playoff hunt.

Here’s what we know right now:

In the Playoffs:  Canucks (8-4), Birdmen(8-4), Gang (8-4), Pescaderos(7-5)

In the Hunt for the last two spots:  Crackheeds (6-6), Brown Trout (6-6), GBP (6-6), Rat Pack(5-7)

Out of the Hunt: Defenders (3-9), Jigiwatts (4-8)

Of the two divisions, the Aliens Division is the only one clinched.  Los Pescaderos, despite lacking the official Yahoo Asterisk of Playoff Certainty, are in the playoffs and have clinched the (weaker) division.  Their division record, even with a loss this week, would still top all others within the division and their points are far and away ahead.  So they’ve clinched not just a playoff spot, but a bye, and no less then the number two seed.  Nice work Gabe.  That said, Los Pescaderos still have important work to do, because what remains up in the air is perhaps the most important issue of all – the Pink Jersey Bet.  Gabe can clinch that too with a win or a Brown Trout loss.  If Los Pescaderos lose and the Brown Trout win, well then we all lose because the hated (tell ‘em Adam) pussy cushion factor comes into serious play as both teams would likely tie.  If that happens, then one of the Buhr Brothers must win the Crown itself to make the other team lose the bet.   Lastly, if both teams win, then Los Pescaderos win the bet UNLESS the Brown Trout also win this week, make the playoffs, and then go on to win the Crown.

 

Let’s start breaking this down with a look at this week’s upcoming games:

 

LT’s Crackheeds (or other name) vs. The Brown Trout

What’s at stake:   Basically, a playoff spot, because the winner is in.

If the Crackheeds win:

-The Crackheeds are in the playoffs

-The Brown Trout are OUT of the playoffs unless the Rat Pack win their game against the GBP and The Brown Trout outscore the Rat Pack this week by 90 points.  (So basically, if the Brown Trout lose they are out)

-Los Pescaderos win the Pink Jersey Bet.

If the Brown Trout win:

-The Brown Trout are in the playoffs

-The Crackheeds are out of the playoffs if the GBP beat the Rat Pack.  If the Rat Pack win that game, it comes down to points, with the higher point total between the Crackheeds and the Rat Pack making the playoffs.  The Crackheeds are currently 47 points ahead of the Rat Pack.

-The Pink Jersey Bet is prolonged based on the outcome of the Los Pescaderos game this week and the possibility of either Buhr brother winning the Crown.

Mormon Defenders vs. Crazy Canucks

What’s at Stake:  The Canucks can clinch the division and the number one seed

If the Canucks win:

-They clinch the Predators Division and the Number One Seed

If the Defenders Win:

-The Predators Division is up in the air.  If the Birdmen beat the Gang, the Birdmen would clinch the division and the number one seed.  If the Gang beat the Birdmen, it will come down to who has more points between the Gang and the Canucks.  The Gang are currently 53 points ahead of the Canucks.

The Rat Pack vs. The GBP

What’s at Stake:  A playoff spot, most likely.  (And definitely for the GBP)

If the GBP win:

-The GBP clinch a playoff spot, and the Rat Pack are done.  The remaining playoff spot goes to the winner of the Crackheeds/Brown Trout game

If the Rat Pack win:

-The GBP are out of the playoffs for sure

-The Rat Pack can make the playoffs IF they have more points than the loser of the Crackheeds/Brown Trout game.  They currently have an 89 point advantage over the Brown Trout, and a 47 point deficit to the Crackheeds.  (Translation: They need to win and root for a Brown Trout loss.)

1.21 Jigiwatt’s vs. Los Pescaderos

What’s at Stake:  Overall seeding for Los Pescaderos and the Pink Jersey Bet

If Los Pescaderos win:

-The Pink Jersey bet will have a winner, and more importantly a loser, and the winner is likely Gabe

-They have a shot at the number one overall seed if The Canucks and Birdmen both lose.  It will come down to points.  They currently lead the Birdmen by 48 points and the Canucks by a million (125) points.

If 1.21 Jigiwatt’s win:

-Los Pescaderos are the number two seed in the playoffs (they have already clinched their division)

-They could potentially tie in the Pink Jersey Bet, in which case the rest of the league loses

-Fwats, feel free to throw this game for the good of the league!!!

The Gang vs. The Fightin’ Birdmen

What’s at Stake:  Possibly the Number one Seed in the playoffs and a bye

If The Gang win:

-The Gang can actually clinch the division if the Canucks lose AND they outscore the Canucks.  They currently have a 40 point edge on the Canucks.

If the Birdmen win:

-They clinch the division with a Canucks loss.  If the Canucks also win, the Birdmen lose the division by way of division record and points are irrelevant.

 

 

OK, now a team by team look for those in the hunt:

Crazy Canucks:

If they win this week:

-Clinch the division and the number one seed

If they lose:

-Will be seeded anywhere from 1st to 4th depending on outcome of Birdmen/Gang game and Pescaderos/Jigiwatts game.  (Too many potentials to list)

Fightin’ Birdmen:

If they win this week:

-Clinch the division with a Canucks loss OR

-Clinch number 3 seed if Canucks win

If they lose this week:

-Will be either number 3 or number 4 seed depending on total points vs. The Gang

The Gang:

If they win this week:

-Can clinch the division IF the Canucks lose and the Gang outscore the Canucks (currently they have a 40 point edge)  OR

-If the Canucks win or outscore the Gang overall, will be either 3rd or 4th seed (based on points vs. The Birdmen)

If they lose this week:

-Will be seeded either 4th, 5th, or 6th based on other results, but likely 4th or 5th (looking at current points)

LT’s Crackheeds:

If they win this week:

-Clinch a playoff spot, seeding either 4th or 5th

-Guarantee the Pink Jersey bet does not end in a horrible, horrible tie

If they lose this week:

-Can still make the playoffs IF The Rat Pack defeat the GBP but do not outscore the Crackheeds for the season (Heeds currently have a 47 point edge); if this happens they would be the 6th seed

Los Pescaderos:

If they win this week:

-Win the Pink Jersey Bet unless the Brown Trout win the Crown

-Can seed number one if Canucks and Birdmen both lose and they remain ahead of Birdmen and Canucks in points (they lead the Birdmen by 48 points, the Canucks by over 100 points), otherwise they seed number 2

If they lose this week:

-Still win the Pink Jersey Bet if the Brown Trout lose

-Will seed number 2 in the playoffs

The Brown Trout:

If they win this week:

-They clinch a playoff spot, either 4th, 5th, or 6th seed depending on the outcome of the Gang/Birdmen game as well as points against the Gang (if they lose) and the outcome of the GBP/Rat Pack game.  Basically, they win and they’re in.

-They can TIE (lame!) the Pink Jersey Bet if Los Pescaderos lose, and that tie would only be broken if one of the Brother’s Buhr won the Crown (double lame).

If they lose this week:

-They are out of the playoffs UNLESS the Rat Pack beat the GBP and The Brown Trout outscore the Rat Pack for the season (unlikely as the Rat Pack currently have a 90 point edge).

-They lose the Pink Jersey Bet

The GBP

If they win this week:

-They clinch a playoff spot, either 5th or 6th seed

If they lose this week:

-They are out of the playoffs (Rat Pack would have them on points)

The Rat Pack:

If they win this week:

-The clinch ONLY if they have more total points than the loser of the Crackheeds/Brown Trout game.  They currently trail the Crackheeds by 47 points and currently lead the Brown Trout by 90 points.

If they lose this week:

-They are out of the playoffs

 

And so it goes, a fairly convoluted playoff picture with a fair amount of mystery just one week away from the dance.  Sunday should prove exciting to multiple teams this week if nothing else.

 

And there it is.  I wanted to get these out as quick as I could.  No time for stats or other analysis this week.  Hopefully when the dust settles from week 13 we can take a look back at the regular season and also preview the playoffs and follow the run to the Crown.

 

Good luck to all teams this week, except The Brown Trout.

 

Commish

 

 

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5 responses to “Commish Notes Week 12 – Running Toward the Playoffs

  • Adman

    Thanks Mick. This is awesome analy-sees.

    I can’t believe there isn’t a tie-breaker in the pink jersey bet. Unbelievable. So dumb.

  • Gabe

    Mick supervised the creation and enaction of the entire bet – we play fantasy football to win games, not to score points (ask Fwats). It does seem somewhat appropriate that this bet really comes down to whether or not the Crackheeds can sack up and win this critical game, since they have been such a strong supporter of the bet throughout the season.

    Sweet bets you made this year Birdman…thanks for the thougtful critique.

  • Fwats

    Chug! Chug! Chug!

    Great stuff Mick. I mean really crazy- obsessive dedication to the scenario.

    I wonder what the last place team gets for next year’s auction draft.

    I wonder also what kinds of incentives exist for said team to help seal the Pink Jersey Bet?

  • discostup

    As executor of the bet I’m fully aware of it’s shortcomings, Gabe, and willing to take my share of the blame. (Why do you think I’m trying to convince Fwats to throw his game?)

    Fwats, Little Buhr is the type to hold a grudge, and you throwing this game would create one of the best grudges ever, and that would amuse me greatly. And frankly, this league could use a good grudge. I leave it to you to decide. Just remember that someone in a pink jersey at the draft and then again at the sports bar, is better than no one in a pink jersey. That much we all agree on.

    Gabe, you too can take care of business with a win. Let’s work together on this one, eh?

    Commish

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