Commish Thoughts Week 11

Well the arrival of the in-laws for Thanksgiving combined with my own overbearing and hectic work schedule this weekend has proved deleterious to my ability to produce proper Commish Notes, or at least semi-proper Commish Thoughts.  Here we are, already firing up week 12 after the Thanksgiving games – it’s Saturday – and I’m left trying to slip away from said guests for a few minutes to get some thoughts out before the rest of the big Week 12 showdowns begin tomorrow.

I really don’t like the Thursday games honestly because they only add more football that I feel obligated to pay attention to in otherwise already busy week.  I will give Thanksgiving a pass, however, because that’s tradition dammit, and hence I don’t mind the Thanksgiving games.  But these one-hit Thursday games on NFL network starting a couple of weeks ago and going until the end of the season really annoy me.  We are stuck with them, though, and simply must make the best.  There are worse things in fact then “more football” on different nights.   Much worse things.

The real story this week is that the playoff picture continues to heat up.  In week 11, with just three games to go, the pivotal playoff shaping games included most notably the Brown Trout barely edging out the GBP as well as Los Pescaderos getting a crucial win and really ruining The Rat Pack’s chances.  The Crackheeds aka “Straight E-Hurt” (if Commish was smart he’d never change that name it was so good) got a huge win over the rival Canucks to push their hopes from “not great” to “possible”.  The Birdmen closed the division race with a win over the defenseless Jigiwatts and the Reigning Champ Mormon Defenders beat up on The Gang in what was likely the least important match of the week , playoff wise.

In the real NFL it wasn’t a good week to be a Manning.  Peyton played a solid game only to throw an awful pick at the end against the hated Patriots and Eli rallied his team around a depleted offense only to go absolutely honkey in the worst way possible.  What’s “going honkey” mean you ask?  Just watch the linked video of the play and phrase should no doubt explain itself.  (Critics suggested that Michael Vick edged Eli by a hair in the athleticism department when the two quarterbacks were compared.)

Yup it was Manning Face left and Manning Face right to end Week 11, which led me to discover again this sweet site, which I know many readers here may enjoy also – check it out:

Manningface.com

Week 11 – Enter the Double Manning Face


And just in case you missed it, the video of “going honkey” taken to a new level.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d81c511ad/Eagles-defense-fumble-recovery?r_src=ramp

As a result of the aforementioned events in Week 11, my weekly post-game Giants wrap up call with Papa Stup was especially good this week.  I knew it would be good before –hand, so I actually started looking for “Record Conversation” apps on my phone (no joke).   Nothing panned out (mostly because I talk with him thru the Blue Tooth while driving) in terms of recording, but the conversation was simply awesome as expected.  My dad’s new favorite thing is to label Eli a grade-A “Panzee” and criticize his “complete lack of strength” (which is his explanation for the hideously uncoordinated fumble).    Some choice quotes:

“Mike – I’m telling you he has no StrENTH!”   (my dad uses the “Strenth” phrasing, minus the “g” for some reason.)

“He’s got no strength in his legs, his hands, or his arms.  He’ a panzee!”

“You ever see Eli Manning do a QB sneak!?  Me neither.  Because the coaches know he has no strength!”

“He’s an average quarterback getting paid like a superstar.  I think he’s terrible.”

And so on.  It’s hard to impart the proper tone with typed quotes, but believe you me it was priceless.

OK, time is short so let’s move on the MLOM Discussion.  Here’s our current playoff picture/power rankings.

In the Playoffs, for all intents and purposes (*)

1)Crazy Canucks (8-3) Still have a little work to do to lock up the division and the first round bye.  Commish wonders if the disappearance of Randy Moss, Ahmad Bradshaw’s fumbling issues, and the slowdown of LDT are starting to worry the Canuck.  They probably should.  A win against the Birdmen this week and the Canucks lock up the division and the bye.

2)Fightin’ Birdmen (7-4) The Birdmen continue to look strong even without a healthy Antonio Gates.   The emergence of Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, and Dez Bryant are really making the Birdman look like some sort of King Midas this year.  Even Baltimore’s defense (a good “real life” defense and poor fantasy defense most of the season) blew up in Adam’s possession.  And don’t forget Carson Fuckface Palmer  (if Commish were the Owner of the Bengals I would pay Adam a million dollars per game to start that guy each week).  All in all, bye week or not, it’s starting to look like the Birdmen’s year more and more.

3)The Gang (7-4) Yikes, Hakeem Nicks is regrettably the latest in long line of critical injuries for PPR’s boys.  It started with Jermichael Finley, continued with Austin Collie and Tony Romo, and now Nicks.  It might be too much for the Gang to actually turn around at this point, but with a strong early season start and seven wins already, the Gang will still be in the mix come playoff time and you really can’t ask for more than a chance at this point in the season.  They still have an outside shot at the division title to boot.

In the Hunt:

4)Los Pescaderos (6-5) The MLOM points leader is primed to lock down a playoff spot with a win in either of the last two weeks.   And with the fast start on Thanksgiving (4 TD’s from the WR trio of Holmes, Megatron, and Welker), things are looking even more promising.  Time for Gabe to start focusing on his most important priority – winning that Pink Jersey bet.

5)The Brown Trout (6-5) Little Buhr did a lot to salvage his season with a close win over the struggling GBP.   Unfortunately the running back situation has gotten so bad in Brownsville that Little Buhr actually turned to Brandon Jacobs this week .  (Papa Stup will tell you what he thinks of that move.)   Win this week and Little Buhr can breathe a sigh of relief and start to focus on the a playoff run.  Lose this week and it will ALL come down a huge week 13 showdown against the Commish’s own *team to be named later*.  High drama here we come.

6)The GBP (6-5) Jonny G’s hemp-loving rag tag bunch are just 2-5 in the past seven weeks and have only scored over 100 points twice in that span (and just ONCE in the past six games).  Mendenhall and Wallace are certainly adequate, but once Dallas Clark went down the GBP were left essentially with little but the godlike Philip Rivers to do all the work for this team.  That in essence makes the GBP just like the Chargers, with the only difference being that the Chargers have been winning recently.

7)LT’s Crackheeds (5-6) The name keeps changing week to week but the story stays the same.  A talented but under-achieving roster struggling to make the playoffs.  Commish feels like Brees should have had about 30 more points on Thanksgiving but he can’t be too upset after a furious two-minute run at the end of that game.  If Commish can get by the Defenders this week the Heeds are actually in decent position with a huge week 13 match-up against the Brown Trout.   The only question remains what sort of team name can make Little Buhr go fetal?

Not Mathematically Out

8.The Rat Pack (4-7) Thought it seems unlikely, the Rat Pack have enough points to scare folks if they can win their last two games in convincing fashion and get to six wins.  As it sits now, they are well ahead of both the Brown Trout and the GBP in terms of total points and are easily within striking range of the Crackheeds as well and as we know in this league anything can happen.   Michael Vick certainly brings a new scary dimension to the Rat Pack and the roster, though underachieving this year, has the feel of a group that can suddenly activate any moment and drop 150 points on somebody (kind of like they did on some poor sap just two weeks ago.)

Spoiling the Party

9)1.21 Jigiwatts (3-8) The hits keep coming against the poor Jigiwatts, who are playing defense like the Houston Texans secondary right now.  They are absorbing a whopping average of 124.1 points per game against them, which is nearly a “blow up”  a week in Ledger of Feats terms.  That has to be a record.   Astoundingly, they’ve had 100 or more points scored against them in all but one game this season, and have had six 120-plus point games against them this year.  And they’re not even playing that bad, scoring over 100 points in their past seven games!   The Jigiwatts are proving that fantasy football is a harsh mistress indeed.  Also, their roster is loaded right now and Commish wouldn’t want to be playing them this week or any week.

10)Mormon Defenders (3-8) As bad as things are for the Crown Hangover Defenders right now, at least it’s not their worst season (a 2-win effort in 2006).  And unlike the other 3-8 team, the Defenders only have themselves to blame as they’ve put up more than 100 points just four times this season.  Despite the all world RB tandem of Light Blue Jesus and MJD, they just haven’t been able to get it going this year.  The Defenders seem to have the highest number of “good football players who aren’t good fantasy football players” on their roster.   Looking for their first winning streak of the season of this week, they can play the ultimate spoiler by burying the Crackheeds with a victory.

Seven Wins Good Enough?

Commish has always thought that seven wins was a guarantee to a playoff spot here in MLOM.  Historically it has always been, and essentially it still is.  BUT, in doing the math this week, Commish has hatched out a scenario where seven teams can have seven or more wins and thus one of those teams would miss the playoffs.  Here’s how it would have to happen:

Week 12:

-Crackheeds defeat Defenders

-Brown Trout Defeat 1.21 Jigiwatts

-GBP/Los Pescaeros game – Winner affects what must happen week 13

-Other games irrelevant

Week 13:

-Crackheeds defeat Brown Trout

-GBP defeats Rat Pack OR Los Pescas defeats 1.21 Jigiwatts (depending on week 12 outcome of GBP/Pescas game)

-Other games irrelevant

If these events happen, we will have 7 teams with 7 wins or more.  In fact, in one particular situation, we could have exactly FIVE teams with a 7-6 record and thus one of them would be hosed.

What are the odds of having more than six teams get to at least seven wins this season based on the above?

One in Thirty-Two or 3.125 percent.

But it COULD happen.

OK, that’s all I have time for this week.  Everyone enjoy the games and the playoff mix, whether you’re high on Mount Clinched, right in the mix, or spoilin’ for a spoilin’.   Next week hopefully we can do some more stat analysis, an update on the inter-division war (hint: Predators win) and get talking about what must happen to have our pink jersey bet come through.  Remember we ALL lose if Little Buhr and Gabe tie for season record – some games in week 13, might have to be, uh, finessed.  (On the flipside, imagine for a minute an identical record Brown Trout/Los Pescaderos Title game this season.  Best ever?  Best ever. )

Commish

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