Commish Thoughts Week 10

Commish Thoughts Week 10

 

I want to start a column like Matthew Berry.  No, I really do.

 

OK, I don’t really but I didn’t know how to open this week’s edition of “Commish Thoughts” so I figured I’d go with a Matthew Berry parody.  Have you ever noticed that every one of that guy’s dumb columns starts with a single or double sentence “sassy” paragraph, like the one above?  I call it high school writing 101, and though I’m no writer, it drives me ape every time I see it.  He uses the gimmick over and over again.

 

Check out the list below of his most recent openings.  Keep in mind these are his full and complete opening paragraphs.   (I just looked back at his last 10 columns or more.  With the exception of two columns, where he actually opened with a normal multi-sentence paragraph, these were his actual opening paragraphs.  He does two columns a week.   One about waiver wire pick-ups, the other about love/hate.  Don’t read them like I always seem to.  They’re really a waste of time.  Unless you’re Little Buhr and you are on his jock.)

 

Here are they are:

 

“I was shocked. And not for the reasons you think.”

“Sunday night’s Green Bay-Dallas game marked a number of events.”

“I get e-mail.”

“I’m jealous.”   (Bonus: The second paragraph was also a single sentence:  “I’m insanely jealous.”)

“How do I do a Halloween fantasy football column that isn’t totally hacky?”

“I had to bump you.”

“Why?”

“Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.”

“Really? Realllly?!”

“I quickly understood why.”

“Not impossible.”

“I’m not gonna lie. I was nervous.”

 

And there you have it.  Matthew “Kurt Vonnegut” Berry.  That guy drives me nuts for some reason.  It’s not his content so much, it’s his tone and attitude.  I can’t handle it. He seems so LA to me.  I love it when deadspin posts pictures of him picking up on chicks at bars.  I really can’t believe Little Buhr is so enamored with him.

 

OK, with that out of the way, let’s move on to week 10.

How about that NFL?  As much as I’ve come to hate fantasy football this year, I must say I enjoy just watching football.  I’m just a football fan, eh Iwan?  I hate the Eagles, but even I had wide eyes as Michael Vick went all Tecmo Bowl Randal Cunningham against a real NFL team last Monday.  That first pass to DeSean Jackson, which traveled 65 yards in the air by my (unofficial) count, was a sight to behold.   It was fun to watch, all right.  Now let’s all collectively hope the Eagles resume sucking.

Sorry Mike Shanahan, you’ve been pwnyo’d

 

 

Iwan also brought to my attention this weekend that Peyton Hillis, who is awesome, has one of the best nicknames ever.  We’re talking “Megatron” level nickname here.  I present to you, the Juggernaut.

 

Peyton Hillis will be giving the X-Men fits no doubt

 

 

OK, onto the league.  Here in MLOM, we’re ten games down and have just three games to go.  The playoff picture is slowly beginning to coalesce.  A few teams can breathe easy as they’ve already staked their claim in the MLOM 2010 playoff picture.  Other teams are starting to sweat as their chances grow increasingly dim.  Let’s take a look.   Keep in mind that 7-win teams are essentially in no matter what and six win teams come down to points.   In fact, since we went to the six team playoff format, here are the number of six-win teams followed by the number of six-win teams  that made the playoffs:

2006 – 3/2

2006 – 2/0

2007 – 3/1

2008 – 2/1

2009 – 2/1

 

Summary:  Four of twelve 6-win teams have made the playoffs, meaning that if you get to six wins you have to be solid in points for the tie-breaker.  Also of note, 100% of 7-win teams have made the playoffs in all years of MLOM.  OK, onto the playoff picture.

 

 

Officially In the playoffs:

Canucks (8-2): A loss this week (during the Rodgers bye week) but still 8-2 and in the driver’s seat to get the coveted first round bye.  After an 11.13 point performance, it doesn’t look like Fitzpatrick (“Oh, HARVARD?!” *giant whack-off motions*) will be taking over the starting QB position for the Canucks any time soon.

The Gang (7-3): May not have the official Yahoo asterisk marking the playoff formality but it’s essentially impossible to get 7 or more wins and miss the playoffs in our current format.  A big kudos to PPR for getting his team back to the dance after two miserable years at the bottom of the league.

 

On the bubble:

Six wins is good enough if you have the points come tie-breaker time.  Most of our teams currently with six wins will get in.  Though that said, you have to go back to 2006 to find a season where a 6-4 team didn’t manage to miss the playoffs.  (It happened with the 2007 Defenders, 2008 Birdmen, and 2009 Canucks).   Any six win team needs just one more win with three games left to clinch a spot.

Birdmen: (6-4): Six wins and being second overall in points at this juncture all but assures the Birdmen of a playoff spot.  That said, we all remember the 2007 Defenders who were 6-1 before dropping 6 straight and missing the playoffs, and so nothing is certain until that seventh win appears.  Still, Birdmen are as close to a lock as there is without actually having seven wins.  Next three games:  Jigiwatts, Canucks, Gang.  Not a cake-walk by any stretch, but Commish is confident Birdmen will get in.  The bigger question might be if they can take the division or not – a big game against the Canucks in two weeks could prove huge.

The GBP (6-4). Despite having the second least point total the GBP are primed to slide into the playoffs and make a run.  Playing in the softer division doesn’t hurt.  Next 3 games:  Brown Trout, Los Pescas, Rat Pack.  Just need to win one, and shockingly Jonny G’s boys are in pole position to get the Alien’s bye week.

 

Almost there:

These 5-win teams need to win two games outright, win one and have the points, or hope teams below them keep losing.  Odds are at least one of these guys stumbles in.  But odds are one of these guys misses out.  Plus both of these teams are involved in the best bet of all time.  Commish is going to be pissed if they tie.  Really pissed.   (Might need to throw that week 13 game against the Brown Trout.  This season may go down in flames for the Crackheeds, but Commish will be damned if he doesn’t see a Buhr brother in a pink jersey next season.)

Los Pescaderos (5-5). Top scoring team is in good position.  With just a single win they are a lock if they can go 2-1 over this last stretch.  Favorable schedule going forward means things are looking up for Los Pescas despite subpar play from Matt Schaub as of late.

Die Braun Forelle (5-5). The Brown Vaginas are right in the mix.  Point output is just seventh best in the league, which doesn’t help, and the remaining schedule (GBP, Jigiwatts, Crackheeds) promises to dramatically affect the MLOM playoff picture.  Commish can’t wait to have Los Pescas rooting with all four nipples for the Crackheeds in week 13.

On the outside looking in:

These teams can guarantee a spot only by winning all three remaining games outright or by winning two AND getting some help.  Commish is willing to bet that one of these teams climbs in and one is left out in the cold.

LT’s Crackheeds (4-6): What else can happen to these guys?  Commish has a feeling it’s just not their year.  But they can still take a crack, and last year they came from exactly this same record and won two of their last three and crawled into the playoffs – and actually a won in the first round!  The week 13 match-up against The Brown Vaginas will be huge on many levels.

The Rat Pack (4-6): Wow, if Michael Vick can keep up his current rate of production, the Rat Pack may pull a modern version of the 2003 Rat Pack, crawl into the playoffs, and straight win the Crown (and possibly prompt a four-team playoff system come next season – you see there’s no limit to the amount of Eryn Roston Rules we can make in this league).

Just a fool’s hope:

1.21 Jigiwatts (3-7): Need to win three straight and keep their fingers crossed.  Schedule includes Birdmen,  Los Pescaderos, and The Brown Vaginas.  Even if they don’t get in they will affect the playoffs dramatically.  Pity the Jigiwatts who have missed the playoffs for two straight years already and hold the “Points Against” title currently by more than 80 points over the next closest team.  (The locked up that title last season as well.)

Out of the Race:

Mormon Defenders (2-8). Unfortunately even if they win three there’s just no chance for the Defending Champs.  On the bright side, Norm can look at his nice trophy for several more weeks and at least hope to play spoiler.  Truth is it’s just tough to win back to back Crowns.  Only one, supremely legendary, incredibly ahead-of-it’s-time franchise has ever done it.  Only one.

 

One last thing

 

Since all the bye weeks are now complete, I wanted to look back at the auction draft and see about any trends in bidding, dollar amounts, points scored, and value.  This week, I looked at the quarterback position.

Points  = Total points this season (rounded to an integer)

Bid = Dollar amount bid at the draft

Points/Dollar = Basically equals points per dollar bid.

The players are listed from most points to fewest.  From Rivers to Schaub are your top 13 scoring QB’s so far this year.  I threw in some others (Henne and afterwards) for good measure, and mostly because they were drafted.  Honestly, I have no idea how to interpret the data yet.  If you’re looking at draft value, well then Orton and Eli Manning are clearly the cream of the crop.  Oh, and don’t forget about Joe Montana 2.0, I mean Carson Palmer, who scored 40 of his 170 total points in one game, where he only had 4 points at halftime as well, only Commish forgets what game that was.  Apparently he’s valuable too.  On the other side the LEAST valuable QB in the league is Drew Brees, earning just a 4 point/dollar value.  Not sure what lessons there are to draw from this, but feel free to take a gander and see what you think.  Looking at it quickly Commish suspects there needs to be a different formula to figure out the true value of points versus cost for the QB position.  Hmm, perhaps in time we can figure out something. Hopefully in time the other positions can be analyzed as well.  Here’s the list:

 

 

Player Points Bid Points/Dollar
Rivers 226 17 13
Orton 214 1 214
P. Manning 209 27 7
Brees 201 43 4
Rodgers 200 28 7
Brady 193 25 7
E. Manning 182 1 182
Ryan 181 2 90
Vick 180 n/a N/a
Palmer 171 1 171
Cassel 166 n/a n/a
Flacco 163 16 10
Schaub 155 26 5
Henne 121 5 24
Favre 88 7 12
Cutler 129 5 25
Kolb 71 10 7
Mcnabb 128 1 128

 

That’s all this week.  Wanted to knock something out before the weekend.

 

 

Good luck this week.

 

Commish

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3 responses to “Commish Thoughts Week 10

  • Fwats

    “It went with the territory.”

    “And it was insane of me to think otherwise.”

    help! I’m stuck in Berry mode!

    A fool’s hope, eh? Yeah that’s about right. Special work on that ejaculatory statgasm at the end, too.

    Maybe there’s a Crown of Thorns we can dole out for the Points Against Title…

  • Gabe

    Excellent breakdown TMR.

    Should be an interesting 3 weeks….

  • Adman

    Those stats at the end are fun to read, but I’m not exactly sure what they mean. Obviously, any junk QB who gets drafted for $1 will have an insanely high points/dollar “value”. Still, interesting to consider, though.

    Poor Morms… first to worst is always tough to swallow.

    I won’t feel confident until Yahoo puts a * next to my name!

    Oh, and is there really no tie-breaker for the Buhr bet? There damn well better be.

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