Crunching the Numbers

With the 2008 season in the books, Commish has started crunching the numbers in hopes of doing a semi-formal recap of the season and of course updating the MLOM Website.

As a tease, I thought I’d share a bit of the info I’ve already garnered here before the total package is complete and unveiled, hopefully in the next two weeks.  Looking through the numbers, I came up with a couple of new stats I wanted to compile.  One is the “100 Point loss” stat (number of games lost despite scoring 100 or more points) and the other is the “Double Digit Win” stat (number of games won despite scoring less than 100 points).  For example, let’s look at the 2008 season.

100+ Point losses, 2008

Cobra Kai,  4

The Gang,  2

Birdmen,  1

Los Pescaderos,  1

Rat Pack,  1

Mormon Defenders,  1

GBP,  1

Poo Fish,  1

LT’s Crackheeds,  0

Crazy Canucks,  0

Generally, the higher the number, the worse that team’s luck during the season.

Similarly, let’s look at the DDW’s.

Double Digit Wins, 2008

Los Pescaderos,  4

Crazy Canucks, 3

LT’s Crackheeds,  2

Birdmen,  2

GBP,  2

Poo Fish,  2

The Gang,  2

Mormon Defenders,  1

Rat Pack,  0

Cobra Kai,  0

This stat is sort of the inverse of the 100-point loss, namely the higher the number, the more dumb luck a team enjoyed.

So we see by the first table that Fwats was the token “Poor Bastard” for the year, and by the second table Gabe was the “Lucky Bastard” of 2008.

Taken together, these two numbers can become sort of like a turnover ratio for luck during the season.  Double Digit wins are like takeaways and 100 point losses are like giveaways.

2008 Double Digit Win versus 100 point loss ratios

Los Pescaderos,  +3

Crazy Canucks, +3

LT’s Crackheeds, +2

Birdmen ,   +1

GBP, +1

Poo Fish, +1

Mormon Defenders, 0

The Gang, 0

Rat Pack, -1

Cobra Kai, -4

So at the end of 2008, according to the “Lucky Bastard Ratio”, Gabe and Iwan tie for the Lucky Bastard Award and poor Fwats (stuck with a losing record despite being second in scoring) gets stuck with the unenviable Poor Bastard Award.

Being amused at this concept, I went ahead and tabulated all the numbers for all the seasons in recorded MLOM history (that is all seasons except 1999, 2000, and fuckface 2003, which didn’t archive properly).  I don’t want to reveal all the numbers yet (I’ll save that for the website Ledger of Feats update), but here are some nuggets I found amusing:

Most Double Digit Wins in a Season:

2008 Los Pescaderos, 4 (Final Record, 7-6)

2001 1.21 Jigiwatts (aka Cobra Kai), 4 (Final Record, 9-4)

2001 Green Bowl Packers, 4 (Final Record, 6-7)

Most 100+ Point Losses in a Season:

2004 Crazy Canucks, 6 (Final Record, 4-9)

2005 Green Bowl Packers, 5 (Final Record, 6-7)

2006 Birdmen, 5 (Final Record, 8-5)

2002 Birdmen, 5 (Final Record, 4-9)

2007 Brown Trout, 5 (Final Record, 6-7)

Just a little food for thought.  Note that 2004 was a monster scoring season, so it’s no shock that the highest number of 100+ point losses come from that year.  Also, 2001 was an anemic year for scoring (early rules), so we see it prominently in the double digit win category.  Note that the 2006 Birdmen, who were champions that year, lost 5 times, and scored over 100 each time!

Luckiest Seasons (Best Ratio of Double Digit Wins to 100+ Point Losses)

2001 1.21 Jigiwatts (aka Cobra Kai), +4

2001 Green Bowl Packers, +4

Unluckiest Seaons (Worst Ratio of Double Digit Wins to 100+ Point Losses)

-2004 Crazy Canucks, -6

-2007 Brown Trout, -5

Lastly, let’s look at totals by season, and save the all-time totals by team for the website.

Number of 100+ point losses, total, by season:

2004, 32

2007, 26

2006, 21

2005, 18

2002, 18

2008, 12

2001, 5

Number of Double Digit wins, total, by season:

2001, 23

2008, 18

2006, 14

2002, 13

2005, 13

2007, 10

2004, 6


And there it is.  Until next update, enjoy the offseason.

Commish

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4 responses to “Crunching the Numbers

  • Adman

    Nice analyseees.

    Are you doing this all by hand? Do you have a big spreadsheet?

    All this kind of analysis is super simple if the data is in a database… I wonder if it’s possible to get all the game data into some sort of easy-to-import format (comma delimited or something)

    Adman

  • discostup

    I do it by hand, actually. I’m not very savvy with excel, so I basically have a system where I go through a season recording what I want from each week in terms of scores, blowouts, stinkbombs, etc, and then it’s all in one place. Every season in MLOM has it’s own sheet of 8.5×11 paper filled to the brim with numbers, records, etc.

    It would be nice to have it in digital form, and I do have some things saved there, and a spreadsheet would be nice, but in order to get to that step I think there would have to be a lot of manual data entry, at least once, unless you could scan the archives or something.

    Commish

  • Fwats

    Wow. Nice work. I mean, REALLY nice work to the extent that I want you in me yet again, Michael.

    It feels good to be a Poor Bastard this year – nowhere to go but up! And if I’m going up, other teams are going ….

    DOWN!

  • Gabe

    Very cool Mick.

    I would say that this last season definitely had a bit of a “lucky bastard” feel to it for Los Pescaderos. In those instances it is the minute differences that can push a team to victory, a little extra smack talk can go a long way in earning FF karma.

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